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A bad Statistical Argument About the Probability of your Existence

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The fallacy is in the 1 in 150,000 times the right sperm had to meet the right egg.  If you went back to 100,000 years ago and tried to predict you would be alive now then the argument is correct but since you are alive now the odds from way in the past do not matter.  

 

Now, this may matter with time travel, if someone did travel back in time to 100,000 BCE and made a change to some of our ancestors then he or she would make you disappear.  The odds of you being the exact you are very small.

the odds from way in the past do not matter.

Yep.
That's an easy thing to overlook, specially for those who think life is a miracle.

 

Gee I'm lucky to be alive - considering all the abortions and what not.

 

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