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We are a worldwide social network of freethinkers, atheists, agnostics and secular humanists.

From the beginning of the pandemic, we were told that one infected person spread the disease to 2 others on average, called its R0. New data says the reproductive number for COVID is 4.5. "... a global average of about 4.5 new cases per infected individual,..." 

COVID-19 was twice as contagious as experts thought when pandemic s...

This means it will be far more difficult to terminate the pandemic than we imagined.

Views: 34

Replies to This Discussion

I like the discussion & seek clarity. This works for me: 

The reproductive number (R#) indicated how contagious is a disease. 

RO pronounced ”R naught” = not contagious

Each infected individual infects an average of two others = R2

Each infected individual infects an average of 4 or 5 others = R4 or R5.

”during the early months of the COVID pandemic, the average number of new infections caused by an infected individual (i.e. the basic reproduction number, R0) was 4.5, or more than twice as many as the initial 2.2 rate estimated by the World Health Organization at the time.”

”The time to reduce the R0 to below 1.1 infections is immediately.

~ Gabriel G. Katul, Assaad Mrad, Sara Bonetti, Gabriele Manoli, and Anthony J. Parolari; (Sept. 24, 2020. Duke University, DURHAM, N.C.  Window for Slowing COVID’s Spread was Smaller than Projected. “Global Convergence of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number and Estimation from Early-Time SIR Dynamics,” PLOSOne. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239800

https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/window-slowing-covids-spread-was-sma...

Note: Gabriel Katul is available for additional comment at gaby@duke.edu.

Chris B I agree with your statement and think the next debate should have some rule.

1. Perhaps the moderator should be a debate champion. 

2. Only one mike should be hot, the other one silenced. 

3. Having each debater in a separate enclosure may make it easier for Biden to stay focused on the topic. 

4. The moderator has to be stricter and insist on compliance or end the "debate."

5. 

6. 

That would help a lot, I think. If t was made to follow the rules instead of yelling... but I see no way to deal with a person like that.

Debate Commission introduces new tools so that the moderator can manage Trump. / Giant gong to indicate each bald-faced lie / Extra gonger for when the first one breaks / Tranquilizer darts / Heavy weather gear for s**t storms / Cleaning supplies to keep it from staining

(click to embiggen)

Equipment for the debate includes "gongs, tranquilizer darts, heavy weather gear for s**t storms, and cleaning supplies." Build two soundproof cubicles with a lock on each door, and a mic controlled by a time-keeper in each room. The keeper-of-time must be a non-partisan who will be checked by monitors from each party. A sergeant at arms enforces the rules, preserves order, and sets penalties.

The moderator defines the debate process and civility of both/all parties and imposes penalties. The timer abides by the clock.

Rules for the debate

1. Round 1. The first speaker for the affirmative side sitting next to the chairperson begins. Then, the first speaker for the negative side responds.

2. Round 2. When the last speaker for the negative side has spoken, the second round of the debate begins, this time in reverse order.

3. Each speaker has a maximum time agreed to by the debaters.

4. Interrupting a speaker is forbidden.

5. The audience does not participate in the debate.

Gregg Gonsalves explains much of what we're seeing in the resurgence.

 "In Europe, countries that were successful in beating back the first wave of Covid-19 are seeing the virus roar back ... most of these countries didn’t use the summer wisely to scale up testing and contact tracing, ensure humane isolation and quarantine (e.g., paid isolation “leave”), institute mandatory mask-wearing, and retro-fit ventilation in places like schools. The countries that did, such as Germany and in Asia-Pacific—New Zealand, South Korea, and China—are thus far managing this next phase of the pandemic far better than the rest of us." 

We’re Never Going Back to Normal

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